Was I a sucker for believing that Kalshi was going to [e.g.] help farmers hedge against drought years or is the problem just morally bankrupt selection of events?
If they said that and you believed it kinda. There are already markets and insurance schemes to allow farmers to do that though through crop insurance, it's a very old and even government subsidized to keep the prices down in many countries. Farmers in need of that can already insure their crops to make $XXX amount of money to make sure they break even on the crop for the year for example there's no real need to bet on the amount of rain to reach that same goal.
Yep Kalshi is at best only shrinking the scale of things a farmer could bet on instead of getting proper old style crop insurance (either yield or revenue). It's just cloaking a weather slot machine in "we're helping farmers" language. Agri-washing their betting market if you will.
I came to the comments dissatisfied with the writing.
Or maybe more specifically the structure, idk not much of a writer, but many of the sentences are solid journalist quality yet the right background is not being set nor the right transitions being given etc.
My dissatisfaction mode used to be boring high school newspaper sentences but the kids still seem to _assemble_ the details a tiny bit better.
Age verification kind of disgusts me and your kid will probably be fine
Isis did manage to recruit young men in the UK via telegram (OK, you just said “in all likelihood“, maybe I’m tossing you the exception that proves the rule)
>I'm in so deep that Claude Code can predict the stock market.
“What?”, more polite than “yeah right” :)
(oh I guess obviously it would have a chance at nailing it for weeks in a row, and have more good years than bad—since actively managed funds can pull that off until, universally, they can’t [beat the market])
“Yeah, so basically the current prevailing sch[*]zo internet theory is that Al nerds have destroyed the internet and created infinite spam.
The advertisement goons are now incapable of determining who is a bot and who is an actual human. The advertisement goons no longer want to pay as much to social media networks.
Social media networks, in full blown panic of losing potential revenue, decided to lobby governments saying
"we gotta protect the kids! ID everyone to protect the kids from pedophiles!".
The social media networks know this doesn't really protect kids. But, it does two things (and a third accidentally).
1. They now can identify who is human and who is Al slop machine, or enough to appease the advertisement goons
2. Advertising to children is a general no-no from politicians, or something, so with ID verification they can say with confidence they're not advertising to children because it's been ID verification. Basically, they can weed out the children and focus on advertising to adults
3. The feds can now tell who is human and who is Al slop. This inadvertently helps them with tracking people and serving fresh daily dumps of propaganda, or whatever they want to do.
It's a win-win-win for advertisers, social media networks, the government, and any business which does data collections.
It fucks over everyone else.
Chat, I'm not going to lie to you. This is an extremely good conspiracy sch[*]zo theory and 1 unironically believe it.”
That _sounds_ somewhat plausible but it means those social media management is completely anemic to everything if true. We just all know that getting verified is how AI spammers get to do spamming. Or post unwanted yet kosher contents. Everything unwanted can be made legal though not everything desired can be made legal.
Zuck wanting to build a centerpiece for his lair made out of resin fused copies of driver's licenses would sound more plausible.
In this case I think the schizos may be right. It makes complete sense. And $2b is peanuts to Meta, on par with the amount they’d authorize their lobbying department to spend over the course of a few years. I’m not surprised at all.
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