I have friends in commercial sheet metal/plumbing/electrical, and the work is endless right now in my area in the Midwest. My immediate goal would be to get on a journeyman program making a fraction of what I make now, and then onwards and upwards from there as I know the more skilled people in these jobs are making top tier money in my area. When I was in college I worked part-time in residential, so it seems logical that I would gravitate in this direction, especially with the supply of work.
At the same time I'd be applying to senior software engineering positions geared towards anything energy/nuclear and possibly datacenter tech/engineering positions as well, but I would be extremely picky. Since everyone is so obsessed with AI/productivity, the electrical grid is going to be more stressed than ever. I'd target positions with no H1B competition, cleared positions and whatnot - this isn't a crack on H1B, but I would imagine there is higher probability in getting interviews without them in the picture. BUT I'm at the whim of hiring managers and whiteboards at that point, which isn't ideal, hence the trades route mentioned first.
I love software so much and have spent the majority of my life doing it, spent all that time getting a CS Master degree and whatnot. It would be a sad day for me, but you do what you have to do. I have a family as well, so not as much mobility and time to burn as a person without.
I think this plan is specific to my situation, but I hope it helps getting a few ideas kicking around in your mind. It is definitely a stressful thing if you think about it too deeply, but I try to distance myself from that mental mode and focus more on what I would have to do if that time comes.
Good write-up. I don't disagree with any of his points, but does anybody here have practical suggestions on how to move forward and think about one's career? I've been a frontend (with a little full stack) for a few years now, and much of the modern landscape concerns me, specifically with how I should be positioning myself.
I hear vague suggestions like "get better at the business domain" and other things like that. I'm not discounting any of that, but what does this actually mean or look like in your day-to-day life? I'm working at a mid-sized company right now. I use Cursor and some other tools, but I can't help but wonder if I'm still falling behind or doing something wrong.
Does anybody have any thoughts or suggestions on this? The landscape and horizon just seems so foggy to me right now.
I think it's about looking at what you're building and proactively suggesting/prototyping what else could be useful for the business. This does get tricky in large corps where things are often quite siloed, but can you think "one step ahead" of the product requirements and build that as well?
I think regardless if you build it, it's a good exercise to run on any project - what would you think to build next, and what does the business actually want. If you are getting closer on those requests in your head then I think it's a positive sign you are understanding the domain.
I think you're right about trying to stay one step ahead of product requirements. Maybe my issue here is that I'm looking for another "path" where one might not exist, at least not a concretely defined one. From childhood to now, things were set in front of me and I just sort of did them, but now it feels like we're entering a real fog of war.
It would be helpful, as you suggest, to start shifting away from "I code based on concrete specs" to "I discover solutions for the business."
Thanks for the reply (and for the original essay). It has given me a lot to chew on.
1. Use the tools to their fullest extend, push boundaries and figure out what works and what doesn't
2. Be more than your tools
As long as you + LLM is significantly more valuable than just an LLM, you'll be employed. I don't know how "practical" this advice is, because it's basically what you're already doing, but it's how I'm thinking about it.
Let's say LLMs add 50 "skill points" to your output. Developer A is at 60 skill points in terms of coding ability, developer B is at 40. The differential between them looks large. Now add LLMs. Developer A is at 110 skill points, developer B is at 90. Same difference, but now it doesn't look as large.
The (perceived, alleged) augmentation by LLMs makes individual differences in developer skill seem less important. From the business's perspective, you are not getting much less by hiring a less skilled developer vs. hiring a more skilled one, even if both of them would be using LLMs on the job.
Obviously, real life is more complicated than this, but that's a rough idea of what the CEO and the shareholders are grappling with from a talent acquisition standpoint.
Don't chase specific technologies, especially not ones driven by for-profit companies. Chase ideas, become great in one slice of the industry, and the very least you can always fall back on that. Once established within a domain, you can always try to branch out, and feel a lot more comfortable doing so.
Ultimately, software is for doing something, and that something can be a whole range of things. If you become really good at just a slice of that, things get a lot easier regardless of the general state of the industry.
Thanks for the response. When you say "one slice of the industry", is the suggestion to understand the core business of whatever I'm building instead of being the "specs to code" person? I guess this is where the advice starts to become fuzzy and vague for me.
Also blind leading the blind here but I see two paths.
1) Specialize in product engineering, which means taking on more business responsibility. Maybe it means building your own products, or maybe it means trying to get yourself in a more customer-facing or managerial role? Im not very sure. Probably do this if you think AI will be replacing most programmers.
2) Specialize in hard programming problems that AI can't do. Frontend is probably most at risk, low level systems programming least at risk. Learn Rust or C/C++, or maybe backend (C#\Java\Go) if you don't want to transition all the way to low level systems stuff.
That being said I don't think AI is really going to replace us anytime soon.
> but wonder if I'm still falling behind or doing something wrong.
This is normal with all that is going on in the industry and the AI/ML hype. But, one should not allow that to lead to "analysis paralysis".
> specifically with how I should be positioning myself. ... Does anybody have any thoughts or suggestions on this?
You have a stable job; hence your entire focus (for now) should be to "grow" in your job/organization. This means taking more responsibilities both technical/non-technical and demonstrating your long-term commitment to management. On the technical side, start with "full stack development" both frontend and backend so you can contribute end-to-end to the entire product line. Learn/Use all available tools (AI and otherwise) to demonstrate independent initiative. Step up for any tasks which might not have a owner (eg. CI/CD etc.). Keep your boss/higher-ups informed so as to maintain visibility throughout the organization. Learn more about the problem domain, interact more with Marketing/Sales so as to become the liaison between Engineering and rest of the organization/clients.
Generally, all higher management look for initiative and independent drive so that they can delegate work with the assurance that it will be taken care of and that is what you need to provide.
Its always been foggy. Even without AI, you were always at risk of having your field disrupted by some tech you didn't see coming.
AI will probably replace the bottom ~30-70%(depends who you ask) of dev jobs. Dont get caught in the dead zone when the bottom falls out.
Exactly how we'll train good devs in the future, if we don't give them a financially stable environment environment to learn in while they're bad, is an open question.
My suggestion would be to move to a higher level of abstraction, change the way which you view the system.
Maybe becoming full stack? Maybe understanding the industry a little deeper? Maybe analyzing your company's competitors better? That would increase your value for the business (a bit of overlap with product management though). Assuming you can now deliver the expected tech part more easily, that's what I'd do.
As for me, I've moved to a permanent product management position.
Use the best tools, the lowest tier of Claude Code is perfect for the stuff you do at home in the evenings and weekends. It's also by far the best at being a "pair coder" as it's chatty and tells you what it's doing and doesn't get confused if you hit ESC and tell it to do something else.
Build your own tools, need a small utility? Use an LLM to create it with you.
Create LLM-focused tools and adjust your workflows to be LLM-friendly.
I personally have a Taskfile setup that follows the same formula regardless of language. "task build" runs lint+test+build. Test and lint are kinda self-evident. All output is set to minimum, only errors are verbose (don't waste context on fancy output).
I also have tools for LLMs to use to find large code files, large and overly complex functions etc.
All project documentation lives in docs/ as markdown files with Mermaid charts.
This way I can just have the general "how to use a taskfile" instructions in my global WHATEVER.md and it'll work in every project.
Learn project management. Working with LLMs is exactly like project managing a bunch of smart and over eager junior coders who want to use every trick and pattern they learned at school for every tiny shell script.
Do a few test projects where you just pretend you're a non-techinical project lead and know WHAT you want but not HOW you want it done. Plan the project, split it into tasks (github tasks or beads[0] both work pretty well). Then have the LLM(s) tackle the tasks one by one and test the end result like a non-techical PM would do in a demo. Comment, critique and ask them to change stuff that doesn't work.
If you can afford it, bring in an outside consultant (Codex or Gemini), both of which are _really_ good at evaluating large codebases for duplication, test coverage, repetition, bad patterns etc. Give their responses verbatim to Claude and ask what it thinks about them.
Working with LLMs is a skill you just need to use to get a feel for it, it's not a science and more like an art. For example I can "feel" when Claude is doing its thing and being either overeager or trying to complete a task while ignoring the burning pile of unit tests it leaves behind and interrupt. it before it gets too far.
Another thing I'd suggest: look into and use non-coding AI tools that improve productivity. For example:
Zoom meeting transcriptions and summaries or Granola. A lot of context is lost when you take manual notes in meetings. If you use a tool that turns a meeting into notes automatically, you can use those notes to bootstrap a prompt/plan for agents.
We use "Notion AI" to transcribe meetings and it's actually pretty good, we just had a team meeting where we talked shit about stuff going on in the company along with actual tasks.
It picked just the tasks and actual points from the transcript and skipped all of the jokes and us bitching about processes =)
My .02$. Show you can tackle harder problems. That includes knowing which problems matter. That happens with learning a "domain", versus just learning a tool (e.g. web development) in a domain.
Change is scary, but thats because most aren't willing to change. Part of the "scare" is the fear of lost investment (e.g. pick wrong major or career). I can appreciate that, but with a little flexibility, that investment can be repurposed quicker today that in pre-2022 thanks to AI.
AI is just another tool, treat it like a partner not a replacement. That can also include learning a domain. Ask AI how a given process works, its history, regulations, etc. Go confirm what it says. Have it break it down. We now can learn faster than ever before. Trust but verify.
You are using Cursor, that shows a willingness to try new things. Now try to move faster than before, go deeper into the challenges. That is always going to be valued.
Really well said. I would even go further and say that the "smart people with expertise" even disagree on matters like this and are operating on imperfect, vague information. Knowing that, it seems even more ridiculous to ask passersby about their opinion on this. Of course you can have an opinion, but keep in mind you're likely operating in 99% fog. Just my two cents.
In a landmark 20 year study, Professor Philip Tetlock showed that even the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than random guesswork. Tetlock’s latest project, an unprecedented government funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions has since shown that there are, however, some people with real demonstrable foresight.
Really enjoyed this comment--thanks for sharing. Game development really sounds like such a different beast from standard line-of-business programming. Always enjoy hearing stories about it and reading books about it (Masters of Doom comes to mind).
Thanks! I've been thinking a lot recently about maybe getting some of my own stories down. The late 90's were a really fascinating time to be in games.
And I loved Masters of Doom, too, although it was weird reading it and occasionally seeing people I knew show up in it, briefly.
You should write them down. I would love to read them, and I'm positive many others would, too. The 90s gaming scene is incredibly fascinating to read about, especially as it started to shift from the cowboy ethic to the corporate ethic (both have their pros and cons). I think I speak for a lot of us when I say we'd love to hear what you have to share.
Can you share how you got through this period and found alignment? I’m going through something similar to what you’ve described. Not the hospital situation—I’m sorry to hear about your mom—but more so the thoughts darting rapidly on their own. I can’t seem to get ahold of them either, and I notice it getting worse. Lots of intrusive thoughts, lots of “open cycles” that cause me mental strain, lots of down cycles too. If you could share, I’m curious how you channeled it into something positive and grew* as a result.
In my case, it was almost out of existential need. I could see myself falling apart to the point of not being functional or even doing something to myself, and I knew that my parents were depending on me.
So out of existential need, I intentionally starting taking on large, creative projects at work that I knew would hold my interest and consume my thoughts. In some cases, this meant undertaking projects of my own volition and "asking for forgiveness rather than permission" at work.
In part because of a couple of articles I read on the scientifically shown improvement of outcomes of cancer patients with positive attitudes, and because I knew my mom already had several negative voices around her daily, I decided my role with her would be relentlessly positive.
An attitude of "we don't know the future, all things are possible, and anything can be overcome with the right set of inputs -- we just need to find what those are". I quickly adopted this attitude for myself, and it allowed me to embrace failure more - because the attitude wasn't predicated on being the best, but rather of overcoming.
Granted, this was all about 6 years ago. Since then, much has changed, and I do find myself facing similar issues again. Without the presence of something "existential" pushing me, I am finding it harder to overcome this time myself.
As with most things, though, feedback cycles are a thing. Negativity feeds on itself, and success begets success, so the first step is finding whatever you can to help break the feedback loop. Catch any negative thoughts as quickly as you can, and redirect them from fatalistic into something malleable.
Catch any random, distracting "I need to Google this" type thoughts as they happen, and write them down on a notebook as something you should Google later, but not right now.
One important thing at the start is that, you don't have to necessarily believe every positive mantra or habit you say, you just have to do it. Over time, the believability will come on its own.
If you can get momentum going towards the positive instead of the negative, break the feedback loop, and get onto the "success begets success" side of it, it gets much easier.
Hope that helps and makes sense. Wish I had an actual, easy answer, but a lot of it is just trying things until you see what works, and being consistent above all else.
Good luck, and if you come up with any of your own tips, please let me know, because as I said - for as much as I've been through this before successfully, I can see it happening again, and I'm realizing it's time to deal with it again myself.
Thanks for the response. Really appreciate it. This is really helpful.
The existential need you mentioned is really powerful. Now that you mention it, the last time I felt really mentally aligned, well, and focused was when I was out of work. I also had a situation where people were depending on me, and it…it wasn’t perfect but it really filtered out a lot of these other thoughts and impulses. Maybe there’s something there about a goal that exists beyond ourselves. Good callout, I’d totally forgotten about that.
I hear you on the consistency. I’m trying that myself too. Just committing to a few actions even if my brain is completely working against me. Again, mixed results, but I’m finding that something is better than nothing, and that, like you said, success begets success.
Wow, what a perfect description—“impulses happening erratically in my mind.” I’ve been trying to…get to the root of this in my own life lately. I also find myself writing feverishly during these states. I call them “soft manic” states, soft because I know that mania is a real thing, and so I don’t want to co-opt that term completely.
I had one this past weekend actually. I ended up writing about 15-20,000 words, but most of it doesn’t make any sense. I mean the sentences and paragraphs do, but there’s no coherence to any of it. “Impulses on the mind”, like you said. They’re really affecting my day to day life. I’ll have a period where I feel content and motivated—about my job, for example—and then I’ll have a sharp drop off where, sometimes for days, I’ll find myself in one of these down cycles.
In fact I’m unsure if anything I’ve even said makes sense. How have you dealt with these mental impulse?
I recently came across internal family system model. I am testing it currently and it has huge promise. Very good book on topic from inventor Richard C. Schwartz: Internal Family Systems Therapy.
This may sound trite but have you tried mindfulness meditation? I'm far from an expert but my understanding is that instead of fighting or avoiding all the chaos in your mind, you sit quietly still and let the thoughts wash over you and just listen to them without judgement or opinions. Just observe what is happening.
If you get locked into a particular thought or topic, first notice it, then let it go.
It's extremely difficult to do but over time this practice of noticing builds a mental muscle and helps you focus your thoughts towards what you want when you want.
Thanks for the suggestion! I tried this a decade ago, for something unrelated, and I recall it not having much of an effect, but if I’m being honest I don’t remember if I gave it enough time either.
It’s been circling around in my head for a few weeks now. This might be the kick in the ass I need to give it another go. The stuff you said about getting locked onto a topic is something I have a lot of trouble with. It’s been a little jarring for me to “realize” that you’re not really in control of your mind, just parts of it, and maybe fewer than we like to think. It can just have all these thoughts and patterns without your consent, so to speak. It’s the locking on / latching on that uproots me.
For me these impulses are mostly like uncontrolled pop ups of a kind of creativity. Somehow those appear addictive, my theory is, that is why they come in large bursts, unintentionally I persuade parts of my brain to produce new ideas. But too much is too much, causing overload and chaos.
I think it helps to make lists of things and ideas. Then
(1)prioritize. This will already generate more order and again some sense of control.
(2) just scratch out a lot of them, you do not need to follow all those paths. 10 or so can remain.
(3) only act upon the top prorities and just rely on the fact that you wrote down the gists of your other non scratched ideas, so you don't have to keep them all in mind.
(4) Some things of the list, you will find them outdated or silly after a while, so those become easy to scratch and let them go out of your mind as well.
(5)well done, you will find your ideas and way of working is a lot more organised!
Thanks. I love that. #3 and #4 are helpful. I need to get out of the "This is the most important thing ever!" impulse when it arises. My mind goes into a complete overhaul in that direction, and I find the whole thing incredibly discomforting. I like what you said about having a list of things along with priorities. I'm trying to do that a little more--I call them "anchors", things you can sort of rally around when the impulses start firing uncontrollably. Thanks again--appreciate your response!
For me I would call the feeling "overwhelmed", it might lead to a kind of anxiety.
I compare the lists to wishlists on ali or amazon. Instead of giving in to the temptation of buying something that is featured when you are shopping for something else, just add it to the wish list. At your next stop, maybe months later, you will see the wish list and say: what was i thinking?
Well said! I was thinking something along these lines--that there must be some sort of correlation between physical health and mental sharpness. Maybe that's why professors are typically fairly lean.
Thanks. That's good advice. I have noticed a tendency to shy away from things more often lately--when I'm diving into one of our legacy systems at work, for example, if I come across something I don't understand, I immediately start to get frustrated, panicked, and look for a way to get this assignment off my back. Spending a bit more time not knowing, and more time diving in, might be the better approach here.
Appreciate it. I was thinking of reading more books, too, but it might be better to think about what I want to achieve, as you mentioned. It's all quite vague in my head. I just feel a lot more mentally sluggish / sloppy than I used to when I was younger. I get the feeling my 20-year-old self would run [mental] circles around me. Who am I kidding--physical ones too!
