> maybe we should change that and have a simpler system with much less complexity
Wholeheartedly agree, but I see the root cause of the issue being income tax itself. As soon as you tax income, you'll go down and endless rabbit hole of what's fair to tax, how much, what kind of income, investment income vs wage income, percentage vs flat rate, etc...
That gave us the mess we have.
I like the idea of consumption tax exclusively (would require an amendment). You're taxed on your purchases.
It's easy to drive behavior (more tax on some things... tax on cigarettes, yachts and private jets) and easy to make more fair (exclude grocery staples).
Consumption taxes are almost always regressive and improperly place the majority of the tax burden on the poor - they're good to have (especially the sin taxes and tax discounts on specific encouraged behaviors) but they should be coupled with taxes on wealth (aka property) and income. And these taxes should be somewhat complex - just not to the extent we have today.
To better spread the tax burden. In an idealized system taxes would be levied in such a manner where a good contribution of labor allowed a more comfortable lifestyle that scaled with diminishing returns. All people should be guaranteed a baseline of comfort and additional economic productivity would offer access to additional luxuries at a gradual rate. That kind of level of micromanagement is only do-able in a command economy which is terrible for a bunch of reasons I won't go into but our tax system should work to ensure that the poorest of us have access to a baseline of benefits at the expense of the richest. Wealth and income should be taxed since income is the most direct expression of productivity and wealth is an accumulation of unspent excess. I don't mean to lean too hard into utilitarianism because it got culty and BS over time but there is a diminishing return to luxuries and we can ensure more joy in society by trying to even the distribution of services.
> who want to bury us in deepfakes, extreme right wing bullshit
It's a shame with articles like this that are otherwise insightful, they just lose me with sentences like that.
Like, if you don't have enough insight to recognize that bullshit is a general political issue, and has been forever, how can I rely on any other analysis you make?
There's a really painful Dunning-Kruger process with LLMs, coupled with brutal confirmation bias that seems to have the industry and many intelligent developers totally hoodwinked.
I went through it too. I'm pretty embarrassed at the AI slop I dumped on my team, thinking the whole time how amazingly productive I was being.
I'm back to writing code by hand now. Of course I use tools to accelerate development, but it's classic stuff like macros and good code completion.
Sure, a LLM can vomit up a form faster than I can type (well, sometimes, the devil is always the details), but it completely falls apart when trying to do something the least bit interesting or novel.
Absolutely. I also think there's a huge number of wannabe developers who don't have the patience to actually learn development. Those people desperately want this AI development dream to be true so they pretend and convince themselves that it is. They talk about how well it works on internet forums, but you ask for the product and it's crickets. It's all wishful thinking.
I keep seeing this. The "for now" comments, and how much better it's getting with each model.
I don't see it in practice though.
The fundamental problem hasn't changed: these things are not reasoning. They aren't problem solving.
They're pattern matching. That gives the illusion of usefulness for coding when your problem is very similar to others, but falls apart as soon as you need any sort of depth or novelty.
I haven't seen any research or theories on how to address this fundamental limitation.
The pattern matching thing turns out to be very useful for many classes of problems, such as translating speech to a structured JSON format, or OCR, etc... but isn't particularly useful for reasoning problems like math or coding (non-trivial problems, of course).
I'm pretty excited about the applications for AI overall and it's potential to reduce human drudgery across many fields, I just think generating code in response to prompts is a poor choice of a LLM application.
Have you actually tried the latest agentic coding models?
Yesterday I asked claude to implement a working web based email client from scratch in rust which can interact with a JMAP based mail server. It did. It took about 20 minutes. The first version had a few bugs - like it was polling for mail instead of streaming emails in. But after prompting it to fix some obvious bugs, I now have a working email client.
Its missing lots of important features - like, it doesn't render HTML emails correctly. And the UI looks incredibly basic. But it wrote the whole thing in 2.5k lines of rust from scratch and it works.
This wasn't possible at all a couple of years ago. A couple of years ago I couldn't get chatgpt to port a single source file from rust to typescript without it running out of context space and introducing subtle bugs in my code. And it was rubbish at rust - it would introduce borrow checker problems and then get stuck, trying and failing to get it to compile. Now claude can write a whole web based email client in rust from scratch, no worries. I did need to manually point out some bugs in the program - claude didn't test its email client on its own. There's room for improvement for sure. But the progress is shocking.
I don't know how anyone who's actually pushed these models can claim they haven't improved much. They're lightyears ahead of where they were a few years ago. Have you actually tried them?
Honestly, I really did do this for a while, mostly in response to comments like this, with some degree of excitement.
I've been disappointed every time.
I do use the LLMs for summarization and "a better google" and am constantly confronted with how inaccurate they are.
I haven't tried with code in the past couple months because to be completely honest, I just don't care.
I enjoy my craft, I enjoy puzzling and thinking through better ways of doing things, I like being confronted with a tedious task because it pushes me towards finding more optimal approaches.
I haven't seen any research that justifies the use of LLMs for code generation, even in the short term, and plenty that supports my concerns about mid to long term impact on quality and skills.
My understanding (please correct me if it's incorrect) is that the "worst-case" scenario for a broadcaster is that they may have to upload a record of political air time to a public file.
If an opposing candidate sees this, they can then request equal air time from that broadcaster.
The rule is in place so that one party or viewpoint can't dominate broadcast media. That's a good thing right?
The rule change here is that traditionally "bona fide" news programs have been, by default, issued an exception to the rule. That has spawned a bunch of "pseudo-news" shows that have also been claiming this exception. Here, the FCC is now saying "hey, you don't just automatically get granted an exception to the rule and get to call yourself a bona fide news program if you're not actually one"". That seems completely reasonable to me.
Broadcast media is held to this FCC standard because they are granted a monopoly for a broadcast spectrum, and it isn't physically possible for a competitor to broadcast on the same spectrum. Streaming etc... doesn't need to follow these rules.
I do think it's wrong that talk radio doesn't seem to be held to the same standard, though.
The worst case scenario now is not limited by process and law. Compliance with politics is taken into consideration for all government business. For examples, see the executive orders blacklisting specific law firms, the withholding of funds to states or areas that vote Democratic, and the threat of investigation into a network after a host said something the President didn't like.
The worst case scenario for a broadcaster is that the FCC commissioner will fabricate an excuse to illegally yank their license, which both he and his boss have explicitly threatened to do to any broadcaster which won't agree to stop criticizing Donald Trump. I agree that one could imagine a reasonable system of broadcast regulation where opinionated talk shows don't host political candidates, but that's not what's going on here.
Everything I've seen is that is specifically what's going on, do you have different information?
The only threat to pulling a license would be if they didn't comply with the FCC rule change, that we've both agreed is reasonable, correct?
Do you have specific examples of the administration threatening to pull a license due to criticism? If that's the case, I'd certainly be vehemently against such action, just as I was when the government illegally acted to suppress and censor alternate viewpoints during covid.
When the FCC chair originally announced he was pursuing this (https://time.com/7318743/abc-kimmel-the-view-brendan-carr-fc...), he was pretty clear that he was doing so in pursuit of the President's directive to punish broadcast channels that say things he doesn't like. Trump himself was pretty explicit that the ultimate goal is pulling their broadcast licenses and his subordinates should fabricate an excuse.
As you say, the FCC has declined to pursue talk radio programs over this issue, even though they're clearly subject to the rule in principle. That's not a mistake, it's because those programs push viewpoints the President favors so he doesn't want to punish them.
Thank you for the link and the concrete reference, I hadn't seen that before.
I think the article and the video summaries I've seen of that interview are a little deceptively edited, but the idea appears to be the same.
Apparently, it's illegal to knowingly broadcast false information [1] within certain guidelines, and that can indeed cause a license revocation:
"The FCC prohibits broadcasting false information about a crime or a catastrophe if the broadcaster knows the information is false and will cause substantial “public harm” if aired. FCC rules specifically say that the “public harm must begin immediately, and cause direct and actual damage to property or to the health or safety of the general public, or diversion of law enforcement or other public health and safety authorities from their duties.”
The FCC chair referenced this law in response to Jimmy Kimmel claiming that the Charlie Kirk shooter was "maga":
“We hit some new lows over the weekend with the MAGA gang trying to characterize this kid who killed Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them and doing everything they can to score political points from it,”
While this was demonstrably untrue, and it was widely known to be untrue at the time, I agree that it doesn't appear to meet the FCC standard I quoted above.
I actually find the FCC rule itself a bit disturbing, as it seems to position the government as an arbiter of truth.
It isn't a new problem, Jefferson struggled with how to deal with it too [2]
"Nothing can now be believed which is seen in a newspaper. Truth itself becomes suspicious by being put into that polluted vehicle"
What do you suggest as a solution? Should false information be ok to broadcast with a FCC license? Who gets to determine whether it's false?
> What do you suggest as a solution? Should false information be ok to broadcast with a ... license?
This seems like begging the question. The issue here obviously isn't truth vs untruth, it is fealty to the regime vs opposition to the regime. All the evidence points in this direction, and there isn't a better case yet made in the opposite.
Witness the example cited above: right-wing talk radio, famous for spreading untruthful info and agreeing with the regime, is let off scot-free. Or how the regime itself spread untruths about Alex Pretti after they killed him. That categorically debunks any purported "truth vs untruth" decision criteria and seems to confirm the fealty vs opposition decision criteria.
Fun thought experiment: re-read this situation, but imagine it took place in russia, by putin's hand. Like seriously, what oppressive regime in modern history HASN'T had some variation of silencing the opposition "for broadcasting 'false information'"?:
> On the morning of March 4, the last remaining independent news outlet in Russia — the award-winning Novaya Gazeta — announced the end of its reporting on the war in Ukraine in response to Russian government demands.
> A new law that bans the “dissemination of knowingly false information” about the Russian armed forces — and carries up to a 15-year penalty — was the final blow. [0]
If you aren't able to see how the issue is much broader than any specific politician, it's difficult to move a conversation forward.
You may want to take a serious and critical look at how these problems have been a part of all politics throughout history.
If your viewpoint is that the current team is the bad guy, but some other team is the good guy, it just means that their propaganda has been effective with you.
Do you think there's a possibility that while they may love you and sympathize with your struggles, they recognize that with any policy some people will be negatively affected?
The idea is to have political policy that minimizes harm and maximizes benefit, for the most people.
Is it possible that this is the way they are viewing it, and that perhaps you are the one who isn't thinking critically because you're being directly negatively affected?
Definitely reasonable to question oneself in this way. But realistically, if someone is unwilling to engage with you about policies that negatively affect you, but instead offer their prayers, that "perhaps..." is working overtime.
Normally I'm pretty good at extending intellectual generosity. But for them, it's at the level of voting for a candidate who supports cuts to Medicaid and then wondering why it's suddenly infinitely harder for me to get through to anyone about assistance (not even for myself, for them) following staffing cuts.
"This isn't what I voted for" is a common utterance. They can't help themselves, so I do my best to help, while they undercut my options to help them.
I didn't know what web components were until after I'd released it for React. I was working in a complete vacuum until I put this out there, and then I started to get involved with the community. Before that I was pretty much the only designer/techie I knew. I'm not a professional developer. I'm just a designer who knows enough TS to piece things together.
So having it for React/NextJS isn't an affirmative decision. It's just the only thing I knew how to do at the time. After the first launch last summer I had a couple folks reach out to help port to SvelteKit and Vue, but you know how it is. People get busy.
I think there's more opportunity to do something novel.
AI can't do it, and the humans with the skills to do it are rapidly disappearing.
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