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> I’m hesitant towards C++ as it seems an ancient programming language and I don’t know for how long it will be around.

It will be around for a long time. This shouldn't be a reason not to pick up C++.

> I‘m currently part of a team that needs help with C++ development.

That might be a good sign that you should pick it up but the details matter a lot. Getting to the point where you're productive with C++ in an existing codebase takes a while even for people who are experienced with the language let alone someone who is just learning it. So I would invest the time to learn C++ for work only if it's a long-term project where you'll have the necessary support from the rest of the team and from your engineering management. You need to establish the expectation that you can't just jump in and immediately make meaningful contributions. If it's a case of "this old C++ repo runs a critical piece of our product and we need a person to make some changes and maintain it", then stay as far away as possible.


Sometimes I get shocked by these numbers and it reminds me how little I know about business. Like if you showed me the wikipedia page for Zapier and asked me give it some value, I would be way off. Or if you pitched the business idea to me, I would tell you do something better with your time.


I’m not surprised that people on a developer focused forum would find little to no value in something that enables automation without programming.

Y’all can probably automate interactions with hundreds of web based services in your sleep, using multiple languages, with unit tests, and a Turing complete ML-based proxy server for high availability.

For the rest of us, Zapier is a little like magic. Granted there are other servothay do the same thing, but none that I’ve found do it as easily and as well as Zapier.


The thing is that no-code solutions are nothing new or unique; they're a dime a dozen, and have existed almost as long as microcomputers have. What's not obvious is why Zapier's version is (apparently) a revelation. I'm not saying there is no reason, but that's probably where the GP is coming from.


It’s easy to use and well integrated into many platforms.

Reminds me of why WhatsApp took off. They spent the time to make it work well on early smart phones when that wasn’t easy.


To add to your point - so much amount of software already exists in the world. Tools like zapier enables people to put these different software services in an massive assembly line and kind of use them to get their workflow.


why wouldn't someone just hire a developer to do this? My understanding is that the market for contractors is oversaturated right now. You could probably pay someone hundreds of dollars to write software that interacts with web services etc if you look hard enough

Like the grandparent comment, it's hard for me to imagine that there are enough people in need of this service to justify a $5B valuation


When I was a non-programmer trying to build a business that needed software, the last thing I wanted was to rely on something I couldn’t maintain myself. For example, I could wire up DNS by hand, but the last thing I’d want is to have to learn Terraform just so I could update my email MX records. Using Herkou because I didn’t want to manage a server was another example. Using something like Zapier to add a row to a spreadsheet or send an email is also amazing.


Would you mind elaborating on this? I'm not sure what you're saying here. Is Zapier a positive or a negative for you?


I think they're clearly saying that Zapier is a positive for them.


Re-reading, you're definitely right. Where I got confused was the "Terraform/Heroku is bad because it adds another layer" but then not understanding why Zapier is better?


Creating a Zap that is hosted by Zapier isn’t just easier than hiring a programmer, it’s also operationally easier. Zapier’s team handled all the devops headaches. Yes, it could be more expensive than a budget developer, but I’d have to maintain an ongoing relationship to handle problems in a way I would not with Zapier. The headache isn’t worth it until you really need something so custom that Zapier couldn’t easily do it anyway. Hire a developer when you need one, and not before.

Regarding Terraform, installing it, learning HCL, understanding the state management, maintaining a place to run it, and learning how not to screw it up were all headaches I did not want.


The process of hiring someone for 'Download attachments from this email address to my Dropbox, then create a note in Quickbooks to pay the invoice' is a lot more complicated / expensive than just using Zapier.

I think you're overestimating what people use Zapier for.


I think someone could make a good living as a Zapier consultant.


There are people who do that, such as https://www.luhhu.com/


why wouldn't someone just hire a developer to do this?

Because developers are relatively expensive.

Because hiring anyone requires identifying someone who can do the job and trusting them to do it well. And even before that, you have to figure out what the job actually is.

Because hiring anyone requires some sort of contract, and that has legal implications that might require approvals etc.

As a developer with the required knowledge and skills, these services offer little value to me, but I'm not their target customer. That knowledge and those skills are the result of decades of study and practice, which is experience that most people don't have, and for all of those people the cost/benefit comparisons are going to look completely different.


Developers are ridiculously expensive and comparatively slow for many tasks.


Also, no developer you’d hire with confidence is gonna get out of bed for an “I can barely explain myself, but all I need is...” job that pays a small amount.


Create in zapier, send the login to dev; please recreate. Works fine and can, in very many cases, be done for well under zapier's pro account prices. Especially for tasks you need to run 100k+ per month, which is not uncommon if you are trying to build a product yourself.


Because people want to click and get it done without dealing with hiring someone else. Tasks that need to be automated could be also very small and not worth the effort of hiring contractors.


BC you have to maintain the code then. Also, a non-engineering team member can quickly get an integration they need done without waiting for a developer.


How to hire capable developers is an open question for even the most sophisticated technology companies. Anything that allows you to avoid that problem is extremely valuable.


Because you don’t “just hire a developer”, and you certainly don’t do anything close to that for most of the needs Zapier addresses.


I'm in a similar boat thinking where are all those people in need of these things but then I look around and realise that 99.99% of the population will ever go as far as using Zapier and not because there's something wrong with it but because it's a good choice for most. Just last week had my colleague with zero tech knowledge connecting Zapier to a couple of systems in minutes savings the company money and more importantly,not delaying pretty important integration.


> why wouldn't someone just hire a developer to do this?

...

> You could probably pay someone hundreds of dollars to write software that interacts with web services etc.

The reason is exactly that. They don't want to pay hundreds for a dev to dev for them, and that's just for 'one' integration, with Zapier they can always add whatever they want. They'd rather have the 'cheaper' option (which to be real doesn't always end up being cheaper in the long run, but sometimes does).

The


We could pay Zapier a few hundred dollars per month or hire 5 full-time devs, it is an easy choice.


Why would I pay someone hundreds of dollars to build something that I don’t know how to maintain, when Zapier can do the same thing for free or $20/mo?


Free is free.

Your return on investment at the $20.00 per month level is a year or less. So it depends on how long you need it for.


Give me a break - there’s no developer that anyone could reasonably trust to write even the simplest program and maintain and modify it throughout they year for less than $20/mo.

Maybe I spend several hours finding someone online who will do the job for $200, then I spend an hour communicating and clarifying my request, then another hour testing the result. 1 months later I decide I need the automated email to have a different subject line, or include an attachment that wasn’t there before, so I find the developers’ email address and pay him another $100 to make the change - or maybe I don’t because it’s too much trouble.

In the alternate world (in which I live), I simply fire up my browser and create a task in about 15-20 minutes. When I need or want a change, I change it myself.

Less time, less hassle, less risk, and in all likelihood less cost.


Your opportunity cost for the time spent maintaining, or managing people to maintain it is much higher than $20, if your business has more important problems you could spend time fixing. It’s very obvious that this is true if you’re a yc-type startup, which could be worth $0 or $1B depending on how you spend a few years.


What will you do to maintain it?


>Sometimes I get shocked by these numbers and it reminds me how little I know about business.

This is because you lack the most overlooked and most difficult to teach skill in investing: empathy. Zapier lets non-programmers, the vast majority of the planet, do things that programmers do. Many programmers have poor empathy and thus make bad salespeople and investors. If you can understand how most of the planet thinks and feels though, you can figure out what is going to work and what isn't.

Twitch.tv is something that amazed me that it became so big. I don't really play video games. Who would spend hours watching people play video games? I couldn't understand this phenomenon because I was limiting my exposure to people only inside my own little bubble of reality. I think one can't be a good investor without constantly developing ones empathy because the appeal of various things is difficult to grasp intuitively without a person who would be the customer in mind.

Personally, I think it's important to spend time with people one has nothing in common with to develop this broader empathy and thus be able to pick up on these trends.


Imagine just blasting out at a person that you've never met and know essentially nothing about, based on a few sentences they wrote regarding startup valuations that "they lack empathy". As in you are willing to assess this other person as being completely devoid of empathy.

That seems fairly insane.


His reply is a textbook example of psychological projection. He clearly lacks empathy and is attempting to attribute it to someone else as a defense mechanism.


Is this intended to be ironic? You're doing the exact same thing.


That's because he lacks empathy. (Only someone lacking empathy would accuse someone who accused someone else of lacking empathy of doing so due to lack of empathy.)


The word "empathy" has an enormous amount of baggage attached to it unfortunately and triggers a whole library of insinuations and assumptions. Admittedly, it was the wrong word to use. I should have said "Consumer empathy" which would have been appropriately in context. Also there are varying degrees of consumer empathy. I know some people who are absolute naturals at understanding people and it's amazing to see how vivid their intuitive understanding of people is. It's like watching people do sketch art who can draw beautiful things like it's nothing.


Honestly it was really obvious from context that you were referring to consumer empathy and not that you were implying that they were a psychopath.


It could be phrased better, but I think they got the point across. The message is something that most people (not just programmers) could relate on various levels and learn to get better.


Damn, misjudge the potential of some product made someone instantly lack of empathy? or maybe it's just that I can't feel deeply relate to everything, and not because I'm heartless bastard...(We can try to understand, yes)

Also, please don't tell other people that they lack empathy straight in the face, that's plain rude, and hey,...sounds like lack of empathy :p

Sometimes I think the application of that word is way too broad, especially in business setting.


I don't think my mother or father could figure out Zapier. Yet they can figure out the MS Office suite and Excel to get work done. I think the premise is just wrong, Zapier is just not easy enough for non-programmers still.

This may be where some of the mystery over the product among programmers could lie. It doesn't look like it would actually let non-programmers do what programmers do at all.


> Twitch.tv is something that amazed me that it became so big. I don't really play video games. Who would spend hours watching people play video games?

Heh. I grew playing games with friends. When I got tired, I'd spend hours just watching them play and having fun hanging out that way. It was no surprise to me they got so big so fast. It really is all about empathy, and I thought this little anecdote would help strengthen your point! :)


>Twitch.tv is something that amazed me that it became so big.

Monetizing loneliness is how social media companies grow. twitch just has a strangle hold on a specific community that no one else thought of.


To be fair they didn't think of it either. It was a natural pivot from justin.tv when they see that the majority of their users were using the platform to broadcast games.


> This is because you lack the most overlooked and most difficult to teach skill in investing: empathy.

Everyone is lacking empathy, that is not limited to the profession. Empathy on most parts comes from your own experience and understanding, and everyones horizon of experience is limited.

> Twitch.tv is something that amazed me that it became so big. I don't really play video games. Who would spend hours watching people play video games?

Which is strange, considering how many people watch sports. And most videogames are nothing else, just more focussed on mental skills than physical skills. But the main selling point of twitch is IMHO not people playing games, but the interaction twitch offers alongside this. Twitch in that regard is more like a sportsbar or a local sportsfield, where everyone meets, talks, interacts while some do stuff on the side.

The more buzzling part for me are youtube-videos of people playing stuff, because those are missing the interacting and it's just like watching a very poor movie with low production-value.

> I think one can't be a good investor without constantly developing ones empathy because the appeal of various things is difficult to grasp intuitively without a person who would be the customer in mind.

Yes, it's a given that you need to understand the thinking and problems of customers if you wanna sell them something well. Just throwing stuff at them might work, but more efficient is to understand what they want and what they need, and then build and sell it specifically to the targeted customers.

Similar like in a game you need to understand the abilities and weaknesses of your enemy to slay them. That's why marketing and reasearch exist.


> Who would spend hours watching people play video games

Ask yourself who would spend hours watching people play sports, and it might not seem so foreign.


Twitch started from Justin.tv, so it was not really about videogames originally.

But, if you think about how professional sports is and could foresee the rise of e-sports...


It's kind of like the rise of live electronic music. Oh there aren't any feats of manual dexterity like playing the guitar or drums well, but people go to see electronic musicians perform anyway.


There was an interesting discussion on /r/DJs, about electronic music performances in the late 90s and early 2000s.

One of the comments articulated that the focus was on the music, not the DJ’s performance, and often times the DJ was not clearly visible, nor intended to be.

Another commenter pointed out that as an electronic music producer nowadays, the only way to present your music, as you also pointed out, is to DJ in front of a crowd.

Don’t underestimate a good DJ, though.

But, it was also pointed out that not all good producers are good DJs and vice-versa.

It is also worth mentioning that Twitch has become an increasingly popular venue for DJs to livestream during quarantine. Ephemeral live performances to reduce copyright infringement penalties are the norm.

Interesting times.


Actually it's because the valuation is insane. They pull like $140MM per year and someone values that at $5B.


I've been a programmer for over 20 years and I still use Zapier because I find it relatively quick and easy. Dealing with writing code for authentication, various API versions, debugging, deploying and maintaining the code is all a PITA that I'm happy to avoid where possible.


Does Zapier only get revenue from paid subscriptions? Or do companies pay for promotion / integration? I suspect there is a big business around semi-private APIs and gluing "enterprise" partnership deals together.


I empathize - in fact I feel the pain. Yet in all my many years of using Zapier I've never paid for the service, and I also would never have guessed the scale of their business.


" Zapier lets non-programmers, the vast majority of the planet, do things that programmers do"

I doubt that's the reason for the evaluation, that's hardly unique.


There was already plenty of middleware tools that allowed API to API translation.

They all (and I assume Zapier is no exception) only allow "no code" integration in only the most basic scenarios.

I don't think it has much to do with empathy, much rather unbounded money printing of late.


Dentists lack empathy: they cant understand how most people think and never explain how they think outside of their bubble.

Our startup, Dentir, makes you do things dentists do :p


The core difference being that “put value X from system S into value Y in system V” is actually conceptually extremely simple, and is mostly encumbered by machinery around it and “incidental complexity”.

Dentistry _is_ all the complexity and the skill of , like, drilling into your mouth or whatever.


To me, you just proved the GP’s comment about “empathy” (in quotes because imagining yourself in someone else’s shoes isn’t empathy, but that’s what they call it). The difficulty with programming has almost nothing to do with the machinery around it and entirely to do with the ability of the general population to understand statements like the one you just made with 4 variables. The direct proof of this is that Word is much more complex than Sublime Text which I use to program. Yet, everyone knows Word. Of course, if someone starts programming with an IDE, they have an additional tool to learn.

For what it’s worth, I think it’s easier to teach someone to be precise with a drill than it is to teach computer literacy.


Khan Academy has an amazing collection of videos on finance. I highly recommend it for understanding cash flows, enterprise value, etc. It's helped me transition (one foot out the door) from tech to finance.


Curious to hear why you left one for the other. Not too often you hear that move. How is it going so far?


I fell out of love with tech, and found more leverage in finance. I still write code (Python) for myself for fun, but would rather live in Excel versus VS Code and k8s 50 hrs a week (I squeeze in commits on my open source projects when the family has gone to bed).

I’m semi retired in my late 30s, so it’s gone well. I am so extraordinarily thankful for the experiences and opportunities I’ve had, but recognize when it’s time to close a life chapter.


If you’re willing to offer advice, when did you make the switch and how? That’s quite a jump, and usually upon entering finance you end up with different tasks to fill up a 50+ hour week. PE/IB/etc ... only way you strike rich with easy schedules is a family office?


Any other good sources, like books or articles ?


The valuation of current tech companies is way astronomical compared to what is considered normal for mature companies.

The average price to sales for S&P used to be between 1.5-2.5 for many decades. However for these newly IPO companies the price to sales ratios are around 10-15.

Similarly the P/E ratio for S&P companies used to be in the 15-25 range to the considered normal .

However with these internet companies, they usually do not turn a profit or if they do, their PE ratios usually lingers in from ~100 to 1000. And the market considers that normal behavior now.


Well, to some extent it is. You can argue both ways, and in Zapier's case, I'd say it's overvalued as the 10-15 range assumes obtaining a monopoly. I don't see how Zapier will do that since there's also IFTTT and other services I've tried.

With that said, consider huge successes like Amazon. Huge successes like Amazon have been generating much more profit compared to what they were projected to earn in 2010 [1]. I picked 2010 since 2 things are out of the way: the tech boom and the credit crunch. Moreover, people understood that Amazon was here to stay. Despite that, 10 years later, they make 20 times as much profit. If investors knew that 10 years ago, I'd bet that the price would not have been about 130$ since according to Google Finance, the diluted earnings per share (EPS) is about 42$, which is about 30% of the 2010 stock price.

Mind you, in 2010, investors already put crazy multiples on stocks like Amazon. Yet, their prediction on how much money it would make has been underestimated back then. If the estimates of 2010 were correct, you'd expect Amazon to now have an EPS of like 6.5$ (130/20) since by conservative measures, the P/E ratio is in the 15-25 range.

Correct me if I'm wrong on this, I'm not the sharpest cookie in the jar.

[1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/net-in...

[2] https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMZN:NASDAQ?window=MAX


However, Amazon never pays dividends. And you probably cannot really vote on anything with your stock either. So what's the point? There is an interesting article about Facebook with a similar opinion. Zuck owns the majority vote and they never pay dividends. What's the point of owning the stock?


> What's the point of owning the stock?

to sell for capital gains when it is higher in the future. Dividends aren't the only way to generate a profit. And for a lot of high income earners, dividends are very tax inefficient as well.


There's a term for when everyone buys something just because you can sell it to someone else for more later.

It's called a bubble.


Yep but when our 401ks auto buy in there's a bit of a stop gap. Also I think the bigger reason is that with tech people expect a nonlinear impact. Amazon being the example. So not only revenue break even but market growth and new market opportunities.


It's only a bubble if it busts. And stock does have value, and if the business it represents have growth, the equivalent value must also grow.

And in any case, if someone else feels that the stock is worth more, and thus pay more for it, what's the problem?


The term of art is actually “greater fool theory”


Sounds exactly like Bitcoin!


Dividends are taxable while price appreciation doesn’t become taxable until you sell. Unless you need income, it’s more tax efficient to shareholders if the company reinvests free cashflow in continued growth.


The point is that (a buyer expects that) the value of the stock itself is increasing. Whether it pays dividends is not the pertinent question.


> However with these internet companies, they usually do not turn a profit or if they do, their PE ratios usually lingers in from ~100 to 1000. And the market considers that normal behavior now.

That's not normal, it's pure stupid. So if you don't think there are people sitting on the sidelines watching idiots bid up shares way, way beyond the replacement value of companies, you're not watching the same thing happen that others are.

Do people even understand what these numbers mean? It means after expenses, assuming no future growth, that's how many years it would take to make back your investment.

Do you know why a P/E ratio of 15 was historically considered high? Because even with modest growth, no one wants to wait 15 years for corporate revenues and acquisition costs to break even. News flash, 15 to 25 years isn't normal.

The average company doesn't even make it 15 to 25 years these days.


This argument is based on the idea that stock markets should price rationally based on value, but evidently that's not really how the markets work. Share prices have -- and need -- very little connection to any "true" value of the business whose stocks are being traded. For the basic investment strategy of trying to buy low and sell high, investors win if the stock subsequently goes up and lose if it subsequently goes down. The reason for the change, if there is any logical reason at all, is largely irrelevant.

Assuming any sort of pricing rationality risks the well-known problem that the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. It should never have been possible in a rational market for the recent WSB pump-and-dumps to work, yet many billions changed hands as a result. Not that I have much sympathy for the losers on that one, because it should also never have been possible in a rational market for the short-selling strategy that left them vulnerable to work either. Both groups got away with something dodgy for a while and then some of them lost a lot of money when the house of cards fell.

Whether this disconnection of prices from real value is a healthy way for stock markets to operate as a key element in our financial systems is a separate question, and it's one that a different and probably much smaller group of people care about.

As a footnote, it's probably worth mentioning that some businesses, including tech stocks, don't necessarily follow the traditional models for either growth or dividend payments. So although those P/E ratios might be considered very high by traditional standards, those traditional rules of thumb aren't necessarily useful in these cases, even if we only look realistically at the potential for future profits. A high-growth tech startup might have low earnings in the early days and rely on some big investments for funding instead if it's building a huge user base without yet having a firm strategy for monetization, for example. That doesn't mean it won't have genuine potential to earn a huge amount of money from that huge user base later on if it does find the right monetization strategy.


>News flash, 15 to 25 years isn't normal.

I think it is fair to say 15-25 is pretty normal. The average P/E on the NYSE has been above 15 for the last 30 years, and most of it's 90 year history.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-ea...

An easy reality check is other asset classes like bonds or real estate. If you are doubling your money after inflation in less than 15 years you are either gambling or outsmarting the the market.


The problem is that there's too much money lying around and nowhere to spend. Look at Softbank: throwing money at some most absurd companies with the hopes someone else will pick up dogs shit when they're gone. VCs are flushed with money and that's how the model works. At least for now.


> The average price to sales for S&P used to be between 1.5-2.5 for many decades. However for these newly IPO companies the price to sales ratios are around 10-15.

You’re off by anywhere from 2-20x on the price to sales multipliers. At one point Snowflake had a market cap of nearly 200x the projected sales of the next twelve months. Before rates started creeping up, most SaaS was trading between 20-40x NTM and up to 60-80x on upside spikes.


So the theoretical reason for the high values of tech companies is that margin is one of the biggest drivers of value in a dcf, due mostly to the non linear nature of division. However, many of the tech companies we’re seeing don’t have near those margins, they are in fact negative.


> ...with these internet companies, they usually do not turn a profit or if they do, their PE ratios usually lingers in from ~100 to 1000

What "internet" company has a P/E ratio above 100?

  Facebook: 25
  Apple: 31
  Netflix: 81
  Google: 36
Netflix is close, I guess.


Shopify: 420 Square: 513 Salesforce: 95 Zoom: 149


Me: I'll sell you 0.0000001% of my company for $1.

You: sure

Me: My company is now worth $10B!

Hackernews: wow that's so amazing! One day in going to be rich doing startups too!


The $5b valuation is speculative. Only $1.3m has been raised, which is less than 0.02% of that valuation.


Or you could say $1.3m of a theoretical $5bn demand curve has been tested, at one point.


Why are you assuming the value VCs give it is even close to an honest estimation of its value?


Despite the replies, I thought this was a good take.

$5,000,000,000 is a truly unimaginable amount in both senses of the word unimaginable. I couldn’t tell the difference between a $5B and $7B company, for example.

And it’s especially hard to tell for a service which is, somewhat by nature, invisible.

But my smart, non-programmer friends love Zapier and I imagine many of their customer relationships will be multi-decade. There really are so many odd businesses in the world.


I think of a billion as (very roughly) half of a cruise liner or half of a casino in the strip in Vegas.

Not sure how accurate that is but at $5b, I imagine zapier as a cruise ship tied up alongside a glittering glass casino.


I think another thing to keep in mind is that wikipedia pages don't tell the whole story. So you shouldn't feel bad about being way off.

Investors assigning value have access to other metrics not visible to us - customer numbers, growth numbers, revenue and what the revenue growth looks like, internal product roadmaps and other areas of growth, etc.


Word.

IIRC, Microsoft acquired CompareNet for $400m in 1999. Scripts for scrapping prices. Written in Perl.

I always get stuck on the little questions. Like: Does it work? Is idea worth doing? How big is the market?

(I mention CompareNet because I had some contact with one of the founders. It's my IRL example that I never figured out how to play this game.)


Maybe valuations are just way astronomically off right now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-12/warren-bu...


I was shocked by how low the number is! My guess was that Zapier was in the 10s of millions


> thank you AWS, Azure, GCP...

This might be your answer. She can look for ways to transition to being a cloud engineer. There is a lot of complexity there and plenty of work to be done for the foreseeable future. As a DBA she should find that switch easier to make than moving to data science.


How could it possibly? Is there a way to do this without requiring all open-source software?


The main issue is customers should have the ability to disable lockdown to install their own OS. For fixing issues, the source code could be shared with customers under a license permitting individual use/modification, but not distribution etc.


This has been my limited experience with everything related to Emacs - fragmented tutorials on how to do x that work with someone's specific setup. And when you start looking around for fixes you get solutions for "this is how I do this with Prelude", "this is built-in", "my customized Spacemacs setup..." and at that point I throw my hands in the air, admit to myself that I'm not a real man and go back to VSCode.


It is so. Emacs contains the full Emacs manual, non-fragmented, compact and complete, including the full Org mode manual, non-fragmented. It is self-documenting program. Users can learn what is built-in feature and what exists before starting to use extensions.

If you try to do too much at once, of course, you are prone to give up as you started on a too high gradient.


I think I'm a pretty adept emacs user, and I've relied at least ten times more on crappy informal documentation in blogs, StackOverflow etc. than on the real stuff.


I do that too, but out of habit from other pursuits rather than a real necessity. Recently, I've found myself going to Emacs and packages' internal help first, and I usually find what I'm looking for. Despite me spending several years not believing it, it's really good documentation for the most part.


> admit to myself that I'm not a real man

Note, many emacs users aren't men at all.


certainly not, they are gods


I know. It's a figure of speech, not a reference to the demographics of emacs users.


> My better memories were all from places I stayed for over 2 months, and all have more to do with people I met than the place itself.

How did you go about meeting people in the first place?


Dating apps, couch surfing, and getting out of the house & going where the people are. Expat groups on Facebook and WhatsApp, too.


Yep, dating apps didn't work great for me at all because I have the misfortune of being both unattractive and picky, but couch surfing hangouts work fantastically, especially for meeting local people. Walking around at least puts you in places where people can talk to you, occasionally they do. Wearing unique or attention grabbing things gives people an excuse to talk to you. I always choose trains and buses to travel, conversations are more common there. Hostels are a very easy way meet other travelers and get your social fix when you need it. Often times the staff are friendly enough and if you stay in one hostel long enough or visit with them, the staff might integrate you into their social life. Most hostel staff like to travel, too. Becoming a regular at any kind of place will almost certainly get you conversations with staff. A lot of people you meet in hostels are traveling from the same country or ones you are going to visit, so you meet those people there.


> both unattractive and picky

I know this is HN, but I do have to say: good luck! :-D


Yo forgot the third parameter in the function..


"Know thyself" self-awareness is a strength :)


At least in Europe (can't speak from personal experience elsewhere) you can easily find "Language Exchange" type meetups. Depending on the city, it will be a healthy mix of locals, immigrants, and tourists. If you speak English fluently, you'll typically have a lot of locals eager to talk with you to practice their English, and in turn you can learn/practice the local language in an open environment.

This is lower stress than trying to go to a random bar and strike up a conversation when I don't know the local language very well, and if you're staying long-term, it's a natural way to develop friendships with locals.


How do you avoid getting mugged or murdered from people you couch surf with? Basically avoiding the scammers...? I feel like in Europe, there are so many street scams and that if police aren't even willing to curb that issue, what recourse would you have if someone were to harm you while couch surfing at some random place? The risk feels pretty high to me. I guess you would have to travel really light in these situations?


It's actually very hard to get murdered in Europe if you're actively trying to avoid it. Same for getting scammed. The overwhelming majority of people are decent. The ones who aren't make the news because their behaviour is so unusual.

I highly recommend you give international travel a try!


In civilized parts of the world you don't need to be actively trying to avoid being attacked.


As someone with mild social anxiety, the thought of doing something like that is utterly alien, even in my own country let alone somewhere else. I don't mean in a "i wouldn't do that" sort of way, but in an "i cannot even imagine/does not compute" sort of way.

Anyhow, good on you for living life :)


I also have/had mild social anxiety. When things open up go stay for a couple days in a hostel somewhere (use hostelworld), make sure to find one with a reasonably large common room and be in it, read a book or do some work. It will probably be therapeutic. Not much is forced and socialness tends to just happen. If someone sits near you or says hi ask "Where are you from? How long are you here? What have you done here?" and roll with it. If you do some research on whats in the area or cool food you want to try, you have an immediate opportunity to invite someone to do an activity. It will feel like sitting on an airplane with the door open to go sky diving to you, exhilirating if you manage to make yourself do it.


A useful psychological hack: you have a bit of a desire to do this, hell, it's scary, right? So invite a friend and make it your goal to plan lots of things - its easier to do do something for others quite a lot of the time. Be explict you are doing this. You'll probably find there are some great bits, some other bits you cant control that are exhausting, etc. Then do another trip. Plan to invite that friend. Plan for the good bits and to avoid the worst bits. Then just go by yourself!

The first run through gives you a motivation to do something challenging and consider what you would think people want to do, even if its awks. The second, you take the learnings and reward yourself


I have mild social anxiety. Maybe more than mild. I have to say sometimes it is easier to be social in another setting. For example, in hostels the expectation is to just start talking for no reason and tell that lone traveler that you are indeed exploring the city and inviting them to join you.

Another thing I've found is taking a class - in my case kickboxing classes led to quite a few new friends.

I don't have as much courage to do that in my home country.


> even in my own country let alone somewhere else

It's much easier "somewhere else". Whatever stupid thing you do, you won't meet these people again. It's liberating.


protip: If the travel nurse during a pandemic from Philadelphia really thinks the riskiest thing she’s done is downloading Hinge, you can do it too.


Staying in hostels is great for this purpose. They have private rooms as well, not just shared dorms.


Is it just bitter people who missed out on making a lot of money? Or is it sober and relatively informed people who are assessing Bitcoin correctly? How do we tell the difference between the two?


Personally don't think it's a FOMO thing it's more of a "why is this so profitable" thing?

The success of Bitcoin isn't entirely rational. And people generally (probably disproportionately so on HN) try to analyze phenomenon like this analytically.

The thing is though...financial markets are not always rational. This isn't unique to BTC.

Edit: typo


That's a false dichotomy.

I think bitcoin is genuinely hated, just like a lot of people and technology are hated.

It doesn't necessarily come from an analysis of bitcoin, whether rational or irrational.

And it doesn't necessarily come from people who are upset because they think they are too late to make money from bitcoin.


If the haters were of one mind they would have killed it long ago.


Seriously, what are the possible outcomes (positive or negative) that we can see play out? By what mechanisms can the currently inflated markets end and how will that impact the rest of the economy?


> It’s still not clear to me a person of this cadre need a PhD in a technical field in this day and age; they might contribute just as much faster if they chose any other route.

They might be able to contribute technically but they might not be given the opportunity to do so if they don't have a PhD.


In hard sciences that might be true but I doubt it’s necessary in tech - see George Hotz.


Hotz is kind of doing his own thing at comma.ai. If I founded my own company, I'm sure they would hire me for anything that I applied for.


> but it's hard to argue that Bitcoin isn't the best on many of those measures

Seems pretty easy to me. What is Bitcoin best at apart from having the largest market cap?


* Longest running network.

* Largest network by nodes.

* Largest network hashrate / Most energy consumed.

* Simple Satoshi Codebase.

* Most accessible - blockchain delivered via satellite!

* One can run a node on a RPi. Requires 351G storage for full chain. Eth is TB's (and growing), requires SSD, fast CPU, etc.

You are not running ETH nodes at home.

* Most decentralized

* Most reliable


I am running ETH nodes at home, on RPis. They are even participating in the (future) consensus model through PoS.

I'm a fan of Bitcoin, and I'm not sure why the random need to criticize Ethereum here. Bitcoin has enough reasons to be useful, no need to be insecure about other projects being useful too.


I was under the impression that the RPi CPU is too slow to process/sync blocks. And unless you have an SSD to store blocks, IO will limit your capacity to verify new incoming blocks every 15 seconds. This was my experience a few years ago.

Are your running a full archival ETH node on a RPI with a 3TB+ SSD attached?


I am also running a couple of validators at home without special hardware.


Half of them are debatable and the rest is true but useless.

You gain nothing from using a system that's 12 year old over one that's 6 years old. Also more nodes just dont add any usefulness anymore at some point, it just more not better.

Reliable is useless without comparing it to something else. BTC had unintentional forks and many small possible double spends and all that stuff in the last 12 years. Its overall reliable, sure but at what metric. Incidents per time? incidents per Tx? Or just the fact that it didn't die in the last 12 years?


* THE HARDEST TO CHANGE


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