If you're relying on likelihoods, what do you do on a stage show when it fails? Do you leave yourself backup possibilities? Just throw your hands up and try again?
Derren Brown shows have the benefit where he can try his tricks on 100 people and just show you the successes.
Depending on the situation I could lie about it succeeding, go forward as if it didn't matter, use a back up technique, take the miss and admit i am not perfect or do it on the full audience all at once to make sure it mostly works (you will observe some of the above if you go see Derren's stage show several times).
Like in this trick, Derren appears to know Fry's card is the king of diamonds, but he doesn't. It's just quite probable[0], and if he was wrong you wouldn't even notice he was guessing, the way it's worked into the trick. If he's right, it also doesn't seem like a guess, but like he somehow knew for certain. The initial deck has only 6 different cards, and Derren has 6 different card-cigarettes hidden on his person. By then he's been told what the card is, so he can't fail that part.
[0] I think Derren half-forces a red diamond picture card, by the way he asks Fry to BURN the card into his mind, but not 3 of hearts, i.e. not a number or heart. He probably can force the choice of a King of Diamonds a lot of the time. A lot of his skill lies in increasing probabilities any way he knows how, until the apparently impossible occurs.
Browne's live shows (usually in a packed auditorium or theatre with an audience of hundreds or thousands) are amazing. Sure, his TV stuff can be edited, but the live show has to work, and it does.
I believe he’s admitted that he is disappointed with that show and the ‘tricks’ involved. He’s at his best when he’s just using suggestion and psychological stagecraft rather than camera tricks
Derren Brown shows have the benefit where he can try his tricks on 100 people and just show you the successes.