1. Complete victory for Ukraine, with Russia at minimum gone from Donbas and likely gone from Crimea
2. More supply trouble, not less, as Covid waves become a fact of life in China. This may be masked by recession
3. 2023 will be the first year people start to mutter that maybe Covid isn’t just a cold even if you’re vaccinated, and links will be made to rising heart attacks in working age people. However there will first be “the pandemic is really over now!” during the summer lull, before a wave of respiratory infections in the fall
4. If we’re lucky, point #3 will lead to a focus on indoor air quality/co2 measurement, but this one isn’t a prediction. It’s the obvious eventual solution though
5. Tether blows up, and more crypto institutions blow up, including Binance and DCG. Likely Silvergate bank too
6. Labour force continues to “mysteriously” shrink as more people are knocked out by long Covid, acute illness, caring for loved ones, and death
2. More supply trouble, not less, as Covid waves become a fact of life in China. This may be masked by recession
3. 2023 will be the first year people start to mutter that maybe Covid isn’t just a cold even if you’re vaccinated, and links will be made to rising heart attacks in working age people. However there will first be “the pandemic is really over now!” during the summer lull, before a wave of respiratory infections in the fall
4. If we’re lucky, point #3 will lead to a focus on indoor air quality/co2 measurement, but this one isn’t a prediction. It’s the obvious eventual solution though
5. Tether blows up, and more crypto institutions blow up, including Binance and DCG. Likely Silvergate bank too
6. Labour force continues to “mysteriously” shrink as more people are knocked out by long Covid, acute illness, caring for loved ones, and death