I think what we conventionally mean by "year of the linux desktop" will never come. The universe has changed in fundamental ways since the time the slogan was adopted. But what will come in its place might be much more important and, dare i say, more beautiful.
Cataclysmic Event 1: As people pointed out already, the vast number of users have switched to a mobile device (or more likely adopted one for the first time). Its a bit silly to argue thats a linux win. The community was as surprised as anybody, witness the still preliminary (true) linux on mobile.
Cataclysmic Event 2: Adtech becomes the primary business model driving tech developments. Linux becomes both an enabler of that shift (the rise of the "cloud") and the last bastion of self-sovereign computing - though that is currently not truly appreciated by the masses
Cataclysmic Effect 3: Machine learning matures to the point of actual use at scale. This is totaly disruptive in ways not yet discernible
Where does this leave a thirty year old dream? Maybe at its best ever chance to change the world (for the better). The linux desktop is the natural home for augmentation of human intelligence the way pioneers envisaged. Its the natural place to run decentalized social networks and who knows what else.
How can we get there? First, its absolutely essential to integrate mobile. I like to think KDE connect as the birth of that convergence. Second its important to develop intelligent desktop applications that preserve privacy and control over algorithms.
We have come a long way. The promised land might be in sight soon.
Cataclysmic Event 1: As people pointed out already, the vast number of users have switched to a mobile device (or more likely adopted one for the first time). Its a bit silly to argue thats a linux win. The community was as surprised as anybody, witness the still preliminary (true) linux on mobile.
Cataclysmic Event 2: Adtech becomes the primary business model driving tech developments. Linux becomes both an enabler of that shift (the rise of the "cloud") and the last bastion of self-sovereign computing - though that is currently not truly appreciated by the masses
Cataclysmic Effect 3: Machine learning matures to the point of actual use at scale. This is totaly disruptive in ways not yet discernible
Where does this leave a thirty year old dream? Maybe at its best ever chance to change the world (for the better). The linux desktop is the natural home for augmentation of human intelligence the way pioneers envisaged. Its the natural place to run decentalized social networks and who knows what else.
How can we get there? First, its absolutely essential to integrate mobile. I like to think KDE connect as the birth of that convergence. Second its important to develop intelligent desktop applications that preserve privacy and control over algorithms.
We have come a long way. The promised land might be in sight soon.
Best wishes to all