it's not that surprising. Despite Tolkien's claims to the contrary there's a very obvious East vs West political narrative in Lord of the Rings, hence it's no accident that Palantir, Anduril etc draw from this. In fact geopolitics is pretty full of Tolkien metaphors, see the "Civlisation vs Orks" debates on Ukraine.

There's a even a pretty good alt history take on this from a Russian writer in the 90s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Ringbearer

I find the WW1 parallel stronger.

Imperial Germany, a nation of good people corrupted by colonial ambitions, draining the youth of Oxfordshire into the wasteland of the trenches.

It also better fits Tolkien’s personal experience and the pre Cold War publication of the Hobbit.

I suppose Ukraine’s also the modern conflict most similar to WW1 as well.