> That's not really the threat model. It's that the U.S. has played the role of policing the world's oceans and world's regional conflicts since WW2. If the U.S. descends into civil war, it will be too preoccupied with internal power struggles to continue to play that role. Many, many countries elsewhere in the world will take the opportunity to settle old scores and jockey for regional advantage. Meanwhile, the population in many countries is supported by food imports that can only be sustained while global trade can freely occur.

So it’s not the Hollywood action movie view of the world. It’s just the standard 2005 version of Pax Americana make-believe.

Meanwhile Israel has attacked Iran and its US ally said “we want to do that too”.