- most patterns in how civilization is arranged oscilate over time
- what's happening right now is most likely an artifact of right now (economics, power structure, culture, politics, etc).
- it seems that a shift back to smaller groups is likely in the future
- what I'm not sure about is whether the larger groups need to dissolve or stabilize in order for smaller groups to rebound
- I can't help but think that if our whole economic system reconfigures after reaching sufficient abundance, more of people's time will be spent on satisfying the soft needs met by smaller social groups, and less time will be spent on what feels meaningless
The last point assumes that there is such a thing as sufficient abundance. I wish there was. My experience with human nature tells me there might not be, though.
Our expectations are always rising, so we will always be unsatisfied. Right now it still requires a lot of human labour to meet all people's basic needs (food, housing , safety, etc). Also the US is at the back end of a big (~75-100 year) economic cycle and deleveraging instead of leveraging, which makes it feel like things are going backwards. People have a tendency to assume how things feel now is how they will always feel, ergo it feels like things will keep going backwards forever.
However, as productivity (tech) keeps advancing and the economic and power system reconfigures itself (which might be painful), there is a decent chance that everything winds up significantly better for most people afterwards.
It may be a generation away, and it won't impact everyone equally, but world wide on average people will be more free to spend their time how they want in the future. This may mean wireheading, community building/socializing, art, learning, making things, competing, playing games, etc. In some ways it will be similar to the past and in other ways it will be very different. The main difference is that most people will have more choice in what they do, which is why I think fewer people will choose to do things they find meaningless and unrewarding.
But people will still find a way to be unsatisfied...
- on average, complexity is increasing.
- most patterns in how civilization is arranged oscilate over time
- what's happening right now is most likely an artifact of right now (economics, power structure, culture, politics, etc).
- it seems that a shift back to smaller groups is likely in the future
- what I'm not sure about is whether the larger groups need to dissolve or stabilize in order for smaller groups to rebound
- I can't help but think that if our whole economic system reconfigures after reaching sufficient abundance, more of people's time will be spent on satisfying the soft needs met by smaller social groups, and less time will be spent on what feels meaningless