I really wonder why people aren't drawing comparisons with crypto/blockchain. In the beginning, there were also two camps: people who thought crypto would replace our entire financial system and everything would be tokenized on the blockchain, and another camp who predicted that within a few years bitcoin would be worth exactly zero and all crypto/blockchain companies would disappear.
The reality turned out to be somewhere in the middle. Crypto didn't replace our financial system, but it exists as a 1-2 trillion dollar segment serving a particular (though controversial) niche of the global economy. It's not going to zero anytime soon.
I think AI/LLMs will follow the same path. There's definitely a level of usefulness there. But we've clearly hit a ceiling since 3.5/4.0. Advancement has only happened in benchmarks and open source models. Also, the idea that a neural net that accepts a fixed amount of padded tokens and returns a list of probabilities will replace the complexities of the human brain is delusional at best.
The only real issue I see is that certain actors in the US have taken such large positions that unwinding them could potentially destroy the US economy at worst, or trigger a recession at best. But this mainly concerns the US, which is on an AI high at the moment.
The reality turned out to be somewhere in the middle. Crypto didn't replace our financial system, but it exists as a 1-2 trillion dollar segment serving a particular (though controversial) niche of the global economy. It's not going to zero anytime soon.
I think AI/LLMs will follow the same path. There's definitely a level of usefulness there. But we've clearly hit a ceiling since 3.5/4.0. Advancement has only happened in benchmarks and open source models. Also, the idea that a neural net that accepts a fixed amount of padded tokens and returns a list of probabilities will replace the complexities of the human brain is delusional at best.
The only real issue I see is that certain actors in the US have taken such large positions that unwinding them could potentially destroy the US economy at worst, or trigger a recession at best. But this mainly concerns the US, which is on an AI high at the moment.